Okay, there are a couple of months yet, so theoretically something could happen in that time to change things. Nonetheless, if I had to call the upcoming US Presidential election right now...
Working at a public library, I tend to catch glances of various local and regional newspapers from time to time.
The current, incumbent President recently made a campaign pass through Ohio. The newspapers, of course, covered this event. Some of them even put it on the front page, naturally. I mean, how often does the President of the Whole Entire United States visit your home town? That's gotta be news. But look at the photographs they're running.
I do not believe these photographs were selected to make the President look good. The Bucyrus Telegraph Forum has him squinting, brow wrinkled, lips pursed, teeth showing in the middle, so that he looks simultaneously disturbed and also comical. The Mansfield News Journal's choice of photo is worse: they apparently managed to get a shot of the President simultaneously scowling and screaming, face twisted with some obviously unpleasant emotion, possibly rage.
In video coverage, these kinds of faces flash past in a second or two, and the person goes on to have other expressions some of the time as well. In a still shot, you get one instant captured, and the people who pick the photo get to pick the instant. They were running these kinds of photos of George W. Bush four years ago. As those of you who have ever lived in a swing state know, the newspapers consistently lean just a little more to the liberal side than the average member of the population at large. I do not believe a Democrat can win in Ohio without their support.
And it would be somewhat unusual for anyone, Democrat or otherwise, to be elected President without winning Ohio's electoral votes.
So if I had to call the election today, I would predict that Romney will win.
Father, in Whom We Live
5 hours ago